Bloomberg is reporting that our boy Barack Obama has a 90% chance of taking the win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary on Tuesday.
Odds that the 46-year-old Illinois senator will prevail in tomorrow’s vote jumped after he won last week’s Iowa Democratic caucuses, while wagers on New York Senator Hillary Clinton, the third-placed finisher in Iowa, tumbled. Online traders say Clinton, 60, has an 8.7 percent of winning in New Hampshire, according to futures contracts at Intrade, a unit of Dublin-based Trade Exchange Network Co. Bettors give former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, who placed second in Iowa, only a 0.3 percent chance of victory in New Hampshire.
Before the Iowa vote, traders gave Obama a 34 percent chance of victory in the New Hampshire primary and a 1-in-4 likelihood of becoming the presidential nominee. That compared with Clinton’s odds of 60 percent in New Hampshire and a two-thirds likelihood of gaining the party’s presidential nomination. Now, Obama has a 66 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, while Clinton’s odds have fallen to 33 percent, according to Trade Exchange, which runs both Intrade and TradeSports.com.
“t looks like Hillary will lose,” said Mike Lenhoff, who helps oversee about $36 billion as chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin Securities Ltd. in London. “I am genuinely surprised at the groundswell of support that Obama has received and the crest of popularity he has ridden on.” In a USA Today/Gallup poll taken after the results of the Iowa caucuses were reported, Obama and McCain held the advantage with the New Hampshire voters before tomorrow’s primary. CONTINUE READING
If you’re a regular reader to T2W you’ll know that I am behind Senator Barack Obama 100%! So just in time for the primaries and caucuses, I decided to add a Politics category where I’ll keep you updated on who’s doing what, and who’s winning what states. I’m no politics expert, but this is my first time being able to vote for a President, so I’m still learning about how everything works … so we can learn together, lol. But anyhow, if you haven’t been living under a rock, then you already know that Barack took the win in the Iowa caucus. If you’re interested in seeing his speech, check it out above.
If you have not registered to vote, then I suggest you do before it’s too late! Contrary to popular belief, if you are currently 17 years old, and will turn 18 on or before November 4, 2008, then you can register TODAY and participate in the primary elections. I won’t be 18 until the 18th of this month, but I registered to vote last fall when they had a rally at my school, and told all of the juniors and seniors what I just told you. I’m from South Carolina, and our Democratic primaries will be held on the 19th (Republican) and the 26th (Democratic). So if you’re from SC, it’s too late to register to vote for the PRIMARIES, but you can still register for the NOVEMBER ELECTION. I provided a link below if you are unsure how to register, or if you’re not sure whether or not the deadline has passed for you to participate in the primaries.
Primary elections are important because they decide who will represent the Democrats and Republicans in the election. So, for instance, if you’re rooting for Barack Obama, then you need to participate in the primaries, because if he doesn’t get enough votes, then he won’t even be able to participate in the November election. Now, I could be wrong on how that process works, so if someone knows, please correct me.
Today is the Wyoming caucuses, so I’ll keep you updated on who wins what … even if my favorite doesn’t make the cut. I’ll try to provide you an unbiased view of everything, but I can’t make any promises lol. My mistake, the Wyoming Democratic caucus isn’t until March 8th. The Republican caucus was held today… But the first Democratic primary will be next Tuesday, January 8th and we’ll definitely keep you updated with that. And just to clarify what I said about providing an “unbiased view of everything,” I meant an unbiased view of the Democratic race. Eff the Republicans lol.
